We are entering the last 5 games of the Mountain West Schedule, we have four games with potential seeding implications and one game that doesn’t matter for seeding in next week’s Mountain West Tournament in Las Vegas. Many different things can happen depending on the outcome of the different games. Let’s look at all the different scenarios that can happen on Friday and Saturday. (Editors note: We won’t touch on the Fresno State vs. Wyoming game in any scenarios since they are both locked into their seeds.)
Standing:
- Utah State 13-4
- Nevada 12-5
- UNLV 12-5
- Boise State 12-5
- SDSU 11-6
- New Mexico 10-7
- CSU 9-8
- Wyoming 7-10
- Fresno State 4-13
- AFA 2-15
- SJSU 2-16
Games:
Friday:
Boise State at SDSU 8 PM MST FS1
Saturday:
CSU at AFA 2 PM MST MW Network
Wyoming at Fresno State 5 PM MST MW Network
New Mexico at USU 6:30 PM MST CBS SN
UNLV at Nevada 8:30 MST CBS SN
Possible Teams for Each Seed:
- USU and Nevada
- USU, Nevada, and UNLV
- Nevada, UNLV, and Boise State
- Nevada, UNLV, and SDSU
- Boise State, SDSU, and UNM
- SDSU, UNM, and CSU
- UNM and CSU
- WYO
- Fresno State
- SJSU and AFA
- SJSU and AFA
Teams that control their destiny for a Seed:
- USU will lock up the 1 seed with a win against UNM on Saturday.
- UNLV will lock up the 2 seed with a win against Nevada on Saturday.
- Boise State locks up the 3 seed with a win or will be the 5 seed with a loss.
- SDSU would lock up the 4 seed with a win.
- AFA will lock up the 10 seed with a win and lock SJSU into the 11 seed, AFA will lock up the 11 seed with a loss and SJSU will be the 10 seed.
Game Scenarios for Seeds: (Editor Note: I will mention CSU if it affects their seeding, and will have all scenarios except the home teams winning, with CSU winning at AFA)
Home Teams win: USU, SDSU, Nevada, AFA win
If all four home teams win on Saturday things become pretty simple for Seeding for the MW Tournament. Part of the reason for this we will have a team as the outright champion so we won’t have to look at tiebreakers for the first and second seeds. AFA beating CSU at home (which would be their first home conference win this season) would lock CSU into the 7 seed and AFA into the 10 seed and a rematch would happen next Wednesday. The only tiebreaker that we would have in this scenario is a 3-way tie for 3rd place. UNLV would win this tiebreaker since they would have a 2-1 record against the two teams they are tied with, SDSU would get the 4 seed since they would be tied 1-1 against Boise State, but they would win the tiebreaker with Boise State since they are 1-1 against league champion USU while Boise State is 0-2 against USU.
- USU
- Nevada
- UNLV
- SDSU
- Boise State
- UNM
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- AFA
- SJSU
Road teams win: UNLV, Boise State, UNM, and CSU win.
Okay, let’s get crazy with this scenario. If the road teams can win this weekend we get into some interesting tiebreakers. First, we would end up with 3-way co-champions with USU, UNLV, and Boise State all finishing at 13-5 in Mountain West Play. If this happens USU would earn the 1 seed due to being 3-0 against UNLV and Boise State, and UNLV would earn the 2 seed with a 1-0 head-to-head against Boise State, leaving Boise State as the 3 seed. Nevada would end up as the 4 seed, UNM would be the number 5 seed due to being 2-0 against USU while SDSU would be 1-1.
- USU
- UNLV
- Boise State
- Nevada
- UNM
- SDSU
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
UNM, Boise State, Nevada, and CSU win:
Let’s knock out the one scenario that keeps USU away from the 1 seed in the Mountain West Tournament. With Nevada beating UNLV, the USU loss to UNM, and Boise State beating SDSU would set up another 3-way tie for the co-champions. Nevada would be the 1 seed since they and USU would both be 2-1 and Boise State 1-2 in the 3-way tiebreak, Nevada would break the tie with USU with their 1-0 head-2-head tiebreak, leaving Boise State as the 3 seed. UNLV would be the 4 seed, and UNM would be the 5 seed due to the tiebreaker with SDSU (Records against 1 seed Nevada: 2-0 vs. 1-1), making SDSU the 6 seed.
- Nevada
- USU
- Boise State
- UNLV
- UNM
- SDSU
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
USU, UNLV, SDSU, and CSU win:
This is one of the only scenarios where CSU would move up to the 6 seed for the MW Tournament. This scenario keeps things very simple. USU would be the 1 seed since they would be the lone champion, and UNLV would be the lone team to finish second, giving them the 2 seed. Since all three teams tied for 3rd, they would go to their records against the top seed which is USU, making Nevada the 3 seed since they are 1-0 against USU, SDSU would be the 4 seed since they are 1-1 against USU, and Boise State would be the 5 seed. CSU would be the 6 seed since both they and UNM are 1-1 against each other and USU, so it would go to their records against UNLV, CSU is 1-1 while UNM is 0-2.
- USU
- UNLV
- Nevada
- SDSU
- Boise State
- CSU
- UNM
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
UNM, Nevada, SDSU, and CSU win:
This is another scenario that is pretty simple in how it would play out. Nevada would tie USU with a 13-5 record both earning co-championships, but it would be Nevada with the 1 seed due to the 1-0 head-2-head tiebreak. UNLV, SDSU, and Boise State would all tie for 3rd, with UNLV earning the 3 seed since they are 2-1 against the other 2, SDSU would be the 4 seed since they are 1-1 against USU, Boise State would be the 5 seed since they are 0-2 against USU. UNM would be the 6 seed, and CSU would be the 7 seed.
- Nevada
- USU
- UNLV
- SDSU
- Boise State
- UNM
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
UNM, UNLV, SDSU, and CSU win:
Another simple scenario for seeding. Since USU and UNLV would be tied at 13-5 and co-champions, USU would be the 1 seed with the 1-0 head-2-head tiebreaker, making UNLV the 2 seed. Nevada, SDSU, and Boise State would all tie for 3rd at 12-6. Nevada would be the 3 seed since they are 1-0 against USU, SDSU would be the 4 seed since they are 1-1 against USU, and Boise State would be the 5 seed. UNM would be the 6 seed, and CSU would be the 7 seed.
- USU
- UNLV
- Nevada
- SDSU
- Boise State
- UNM
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
USU, Nevada, Boise State, and CSU win:
We do add another tiebreaker with this scenario but it isn’t that difficult to figure it out. USU would be the 1 seed since they would be the lone champion at 14-4. Nevada and Boise State would tie for 2nd at 13-5, since they split their head-2-head it would head to their record against the number 1 seed, Nevada would earn the 2 seed since they are 1-0 against USU, and Boise State would be the 3 seed. UNLV would be the 4 seed since they would be alone in 4th at 12-6, SDSU would be the 5 seed since they would be alone in 5th at 11-7. UNM and CSU would be tied for 6th at 10-8, since UNM and CSU split their head-2-head it would go to the top team USU, since both would be 1-1 against USU it would go to Nevada, where UNM is 2-0 and CSU is 0-2, making UNM the 6 seed, and CSU the 7 seed.
- USU
- Nevada
- Boise State
- UNLV
- SDSU
- UNM
- CSU
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
USU, UNLV, Boise State, and CSU win:
Another fairly simple scenario to figure out. USU would once again be the lone champion at 14-4, giving them the 1 seed. UNLV and Boise State would be tied for second since UNLV won the head-2-head 1-0, they would be the 2 seed, making Boise State the 3 seed. Nevada would be alone in 4th at 12-6 giving them the 4 seed. SDSU would have the 5 seed they would be alone in 5th at 11-7. UNM and CSU would be tied for 6th at 10-8, as mentioned before they split their head-2-head, and both would be 1-1 against USU, CSU would earn the 6 seed since they are 1-1 against UNLV while UNM is 0-2.
- USU
- UNLV
- Boise State
- Nevada
- SDSU
- CSU
- UNM
- Wyoming
- Fresno State
- SJSU
- AFA
Simple Math:
USU is the 1 seed with a win or Nevada win over UNLV.
UNLV is the 2 seed with a win over Nevada.
Boise State will be the 3 seed with a win or the 5 seed with a loss.
SDSU is the 4 seed with a win.
UNM will be the 5 with a win and SDSU lose to Boise State. UNM will be at least the 6 seed (5 is the ceiling) with a CSU loss or Nevada win over UNLV.