The Lobos (4-6) have finished their non-conference schedule (depending on whether or not the Eastern Illinois game is rescheduled), and will open their Mountain West schedule on the road against the Fresno State Bulldogs (7-4). This game has a chance to be a building block for the Lobos, as a win at Fresno State will give them a huge conference road win and a leg up on the conference. While I don’t think the Lobos are in the top tier of the conference right now, road wins would help push the Lobos into that conversation. One thing that will be interesting to watch in this game is which team is can force their tempo on the other team. The Lobos so far this season have done a great job of dictating their tempo and playing around 78 possession per game, while Fresno tends to try to slow things down. Whichever team gets the tempo they want could decide the outcome of the game.

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With non-conference play now finished for the Mountain West women’s basketball programs, each team is ready for the grind of conference play. The Lobos (4-6) look to be in the middle of the conference ladder right now, but conference play can change things in a hurry. While the non-conference schedule didn’t give the results everyone wanted to see, they did show great promise in a few of the games, including the drumming of NMSU at home. The Lobos have the talent to make things difficult for the top contenders for the conference title, and could find themselves in the top tier of the conference. With the lack of advanced statistics on the women’s side, it’s a little difficult to compare how the teams have performed, but I’ll give it a shot.

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The Lobos (4-5) return to action Wednesday, when they travel to take on a very good Marquette Golden Eagles (8-2) team. It has been a while since the Lobos have played a game, as their scheduled game against Eastern Illinois on Sunday was postponed due to weather. There is question if that game will be able to be made up, since it is getting close to conference play and the players will be able to head home after the game against Marquette. As for this game, this could very well be the best team the Lobos will face this season, as they will be tasked with challenge of stopping a great Marquette offense. It will be very important for the Lobos to take care of the ball and have a great shooting day, which is a possibility, since Marquette isn’t a great defensive team.

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Thanks to travel and holidays, it has been a little while since we have checked in with the Lobos, who are currently sitting at 4-5 on the season. while the results have been uneven so far, there are many encouraging things to take from the first nine games of the season. The team will continue to have ups and downs all season, and will look great during some stretches and not so good during others. One thing that has been easy to see so far is  how much faster the pace of play that the Lobos are playing at is compared to last year, which means that when the Lobos are hitting shots, they are able to build huge leads in a hurry.

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The Lobos (2-3) are currently on a three-game losing streak, having lost at Texas Tech and two home games against Tulsa and Saint Joseph’s. They are looking to get back on track on the road against NMSU (4-2), who they dominated in their first meeting a couple of weeks ago, winning going away 84-55. In the first meeting, the Aggies had no answer for Rachelle van der Keijl, who finished the game with 19 points (9-12 FGs), 20 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots. It would be safe to assume the Lobo coaching staff will make it a point to get van der Keijl and Jaisa Nunn involved early and often in this rematch. The Lobos also had great games from Alex Lapeyrolierie (22 points, 5-12 3P FGs) and great playmaking by Cherise Beynon, who tied a Lobo record with 15 assists.

Trends:

Since it has been a few games since we have caught up with the Lobos, here are a few of the trends that have caught my eye.

Good Trends:

• Rachelle van der Keijl has been fantastic early this season for the Lobos, leading the team with 16.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks a game. Look for Coach Bradbury to make a point to play through the post more as the season goes along.
• Jaisa Nunn has been great coming off the bench so far this season, teaming up with van der Keijl to form a great 1-2 scoring punch in the post. Nunn is averaging 12.4 points and 8.8 rebounds in 23 minutes a game. After not attempting a three-pointer last season Nunn is 2-7 (28.6%) from distance these first five games.
• The Lobos are shooting a lot of three-pointers, as expected. While they haven’t shot great from behind the line so far this season (28.8%), Alex Lapeyrolerie has been the one Lobo to shot well from distance, making 16-42 (38.1%). With the Lobos shooting three-pointers at such a high rate (26.4 attempts per game), if the Lobos can hit 10 threes a game, that would go a long way in being a high scoring team.
• While Cherise Beynon has struggled with her shot early this season, she has done well to make an impact setting up her teammates in good scoring chances and helping on the glass. So far this season, Beynon is averaging 8.6 points, 8.6 assists and 9 rebounds a game.
• The Lobos have had quarters where they have dominated their opponents. This shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the fast place they play at. When the Lobos are hitting shots from the outside and getting the ball inside, they are hard to stop and can build big leads in a hurry.
• The Lobos defense has done a good job limiting good looks for their opponents, holding them to 35.3% from the floor and 28.3% from the three-point line.

Bad Trends:

• Due to the lack of true point guards and great outside shooters, the Lobos can go through long droughts. During the Tulsa game, they scored 2 points during the second quarter. The Lobos will have occasional struggles scoring, but it isn’t because of style or lack of effort.
• Cherise Beynon has struggled from the floor so far this season, shooting 14-81 (17.3%) from the floor. I fully expect this number to go up, but the question will be how much, since last season Beynon shot barely over 30%. If the Lobos are able to shoot well the rest of the season, we could see Beynon being close to averaging a triple-double.
• Right now, the Lobos are averaging 14.8 turnovers a game, which isn’t horrible considering the pace they play at, but I would venture to guess that Coach Bradbury and staff would like to see that number closer to 12.
• The Lobos have struggled with turning their opponents over, with their opponents averaging only 11 a game. The Lobos need to find a way to force more turnovers to get in transition where our athletes should be able to get easy buckets.

Stat Comparison:

	Lobos	Aggies
Points Per Game	71.2	73.7
Points Allowed Per Game	65.2	61.8
Rebounds Per Game/Margin	51.6, +6.8	44.3, +1.0
Assists Per Game	16.6	16.8
Turnovers Per Game	14.8	15.3
Steals Per Game	4.2	12.2
Blocks Per Game	5.0	5.7
Field Goal %	37.6%	39.4%
3 Point%	28.8%	27.8%
Free Throw %	55.7%	67.7%
Opponent FG%	35.3%	35.3%
Opponent 3P FG%	28.3%	27.5%

As we can see from the stats, these teams are evenly matched. I would be surprised if this isn’t a close game, unlike their first meeting in The PIT.

Prediction:

This should be a good matchup between the two Division I schools in the state. Due to the first meeting, I expect the Aggies coaching staff to make more adjustments than the Lobos to start the game. If changes aren’t made, we could see a repeat of the first meeting. I think this game is going to be a lot closer and will likely be a toss-up game between the two teams. I give the Lobos a 54% chance of winning the game, with the final being 79-75. Expect Cherise Beynon to make up for her bad shooting in the first meeting with a big game against the Aggies.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (2-3) at New Mexico State Aggies (4-2)

When: Wednesday November 30, 5:30 PM MT

Where: Pan American Center, Las Cruces, New Mexico

Steam: ESPN3

 

The Lobos (1-0) got their season off to a good start with a dominating win against Fairleigh Dickinson, winning 83-56. It was a good matchup for the Lobos to shake off some of the rust and start to understand Coach Bradbury’s style of play without having to think about it too much. In that matchup against Fairleigh Dickinson, the Lobos could use their size to their advantage and received great games from Rachelle van der Keijl, Kianna Keller, and Jaisa Nunn, with each player collecting 9 rebounds and combining for 33 points. The Lobos will need to keep getting great games from their front court and use their great size as an advantage. Things will get tougher for the Lobos when they face NMSU (1-0) on Tuesday night, as NMSU is coming off a great season in which they went 24-5, including a sweep of the Lobos.

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The Coach Bradbury era tips off for real on Saturday afternoon when the Lobos take on Fairleigh Dickinson in both team’s season opener. The Lobos will be heavy favorites in this game, but that doesn’t mean they can just show up and expect to win. Last season, Fairleigh Dickinson went 11-22 and had an RPI of 314. In comparison, the Lobos went 17-15 with an RPI of 171. This will be a good opening game for the Lobos before things get a little tougher in a couple of days, when they will take on NMSU.

Stat Comparison:

	Lobos	Knights
Points Per Game	61.3	64.8
Points Allowed Per Game	57.6	71.3
Rebounds Per Game/Margin	39.2, +3.3	39.6, +.5
Assists Per Game	13.5	11.5
Turnovers Per Game	14.6	18
Steals Per Game	8.8	7.5
Blocks Per Game	2.9	3.3
Field Goal %	37.7%	39.7%
3 Point%	27.7%	30.1%
Free Throw %	.651%	71.5%

These stats are from last season and there are quite a few changes for both teams, so it will be interesting to see how different the two teams are from last year.

Fairleigh Dickinson:

This could be tough year for the Knights, as they lose 3 of their top 4 scorers, including two players that averaged over 16 points per game. The top returning player for the Knights is Brianna Thomas, who averaged 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds, if the Knights want to be good this season, Thomas must take a step forward and become a player that averages 12 points and 8 rebounds a game. The Knights will need newcomers and returning players to fill the void left by their star players from a year ago. In my opinion, Fairleigh Dickinson is one of the two most winnable games this season, so the Lobos need to make the most of this opportunity.

What to Watch:

• It will be interesting to see Coach Bradbury’s rotation early in the year. In his press conference earlier this week, Bradbury said he would like to use a 7-player rotation, which means a lot of players could get left out.
• How quickly will the Lobos be able to get comfortable playing this up-tempo style of basketball? If the Lobos can find good shots early in the shot clock and can keep turnovers to under 13 a game, the transition shouldn’t be too rough.
• How well will the two centers in the game at the same time play together? Kianna Keller and Rachelle van der Keijl will be the starting front court early this year for the Lobos, so it will be interesting to see how well that works.
• Is Cherise Beynon able to take the step forward and become the star of the team? Beynon shared the role with Shumpert as a sophomore last year and will be counted on for a lot of the Lobos’ success this season.
• The point guard position will be worth watching at all yea. How much will the lone true point guard Laneah Bryan play and who are the other players that will play the lead guard position?

Schedule Breakdown:

All records and RPI are from last season results, so while these will change from year to year, they will give us some understanding of who is good and who the Lobos should beat.

Fairleigh Dickinson	11-22	314
NMSU H/A	24-5	94
@ Texas Tech	13-18	143
Tulsa	12-19	190
BYU/St. Joseph’s	25-7, 14-15	22, 123
SMU	13-18	197
Minnesota	20-12	86
UTEP	28-5	36
Eastern Illinois	3-25	339
@ Marquette	14-16	105

 

The Lobos will play eight of their eleven non-conference games at home this season, which could allow the Lobos to get confidence going into the conference schedule.

Bold Predictions:

• Cherise Beynon will average 17 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals a game.
• Mykeil Burleson will average 8+ point and 3+ assists per game
• Kianna Keller and Rachelle van der Keijl will combine for over 5 blocks a game.
• Jaisa Nunn and van der Keijl will both average 8+ points and 8+ rebounds a game.
• Emily Lines will lead the Lobos in 3 Point % and average two 3 point makes a game.
• Lobos will finish in the top 4 of the conference.
• Lobos will win 20 games and make great strides as a team come January.
• Cherise Beynon will be named MW Player of the Year.
• van der Keijl and Nunn will make an all-conference team.
• Coach Bradbury will win coach of the year.
• Lobos will average 77+ points per game.
• Lobos will make a run in the conference tournament.

Game Prediction:

I have the Lobos winning the game against Fairleigh Dickinson easily. If the Lobos can play their style of play, you could be looking at a 20+ point win. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 85% with the Lobos winning this game 85-63.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (0-0) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (0-0)

When: Saturday, November 12, 2 PM MT

Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Steam: LoboTV