Category: Lobo Baseball
Lobo Baseball: 2017 Conference Tournament Preview
This weekend the University of New Mexico will host the Mountain West Conference Baseball Tournament after the Lobos (29-25, 19-9-1) won their finale against Nevada, and a loss by SDSU won the Regular Season Title for the Lobos, and the right to host the Tournament. The Lobos who won the Tournament last year (also as host), will look to make it two years in a row as host and winner of the Tournament. The Lobos have struggled down the stretch going 3-6 in the final three series. The good and bad thing for all four of the teams competing in the Tournament, the only way to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the MW auto-bid. It should be a great tournament this weekend with many twist and turns.
Catching up with Lobo Baseball and (AFA Series Predictions)
We are heading down the home stretch for the conference regular season with the first-place Lobos (26-19-1, 16-3-1), who are looking to lock up the MW Regular Season Championship and the honor to host the conference tournament in a couple of weeks. The Lobos have nine regular season games left, as they will host Air Force this weekend, will travel to Fresno State next weekend, and close out the season hosting Nevada. The Lobos are four games up in the loss column on San Diego State, but due to the tie and rain out at San Jose State, the Lobos and Aztecs will not have any tie breakers that could come into play, since the conference champion will be decided by win percentage. This week, we will look at the big picture for the Lobos going into the last month of the season and have a quick look at the series this weekend against Air Force.
Safe or In Danger?
The Lobos are in a very interesting spot when it comes to the possibility of making the NCAA Tournament this season. In both D1Baseball’s and Baseball America’s brackets this weekend, the Lobos were penciled in as a 3 seed (33-48 ranked teams), which means the Lobos should have some breathing room. The problem for the Lobos is that their nine remaining games are against teams ranked below 150 in the RPI (AFA 216, FSU 180, and Nevada 227). This means the Lobos will most likely see their strong RPI of 38 drop to somewhere in the 40s or 50s, which could put their at-large hopes in question. This brings up some question on how much influence RPI should have in the selection process, even more so with baseball than basketball. Here are some reason the Lobos should have their spot locked in the tournament without having to win the MW Tournament (this of course is barring a late season collapse).
- The Lobos put together one of the most difficult schedules a mid-major team can realistically schedule, and this is rewarded with the number 1 non-conference schedule. While their record isn’t the “normal standard” for a mid-major team to make the field, the Lobos should be viewed with the scope of doing everything they could to put together an incredible schedule.
- It isn’t the Lobos fault that the rest of the conference, except SDSU to some extent, didn’t play tough schedules and in turn have terrible RPI’s and strength of schedule. The rest of the conference needs to start taking the approach of the Lobos in scheduling big games, as the one team that has an excuse for this is AFA.
- The Lobos have quality wins and could end up winning a conference with fewer than 5 losses. No matter what conference you play in, if you can go 10 series with fewer than 5 losses, you should be in the field.
In the end, I hope that the Lobos don’t have to plead their case in front of the selection committee, simply because they won the conference tournament and earned the auto-bid. This Lobo team has a chance to make noise in a regional and it would be a huge letdown if they weren’t given a chance to compete in the NCAA Tournament.
All AmeriMang:
The growth of sophomore outfielder and Las Alamos native Jared Mang has been a blast to watch this season. Last season, Mang showed tons of promise and signs of what could become in the future, and the future is now. After a slow start, Mang has positioned himself to be in the conversation for an All-American team. There are a few honors that Mang could receive this year, including Conference Player of the Year and All-American.
Conference Stats:
- Batting Average: .488
- On Base Percentage: .552
- Slugging Percentage: .750
- Hits: 41
- Runs: 34
- Runs Batted In: 32
- Doubles: 8
- Home Runs: 4
Overall Stats:
- Batting Average: .386
- On Base Percentage: .448
- Slugging Percentage: .603
- Hits: 73
- Runs: 54
- Runs Batted In: 52
- Doubles: 13
- Home Runs: 8
This season is just the beginning for Mang, as he has a chance to be on the USA College Team this summer and could find himself as the most scouted UNM player since DJ Peterson in 2013. Enjoy watching Mang while you can, because you will probably only have one more full year of watching him play.
Conference Standings:
| Conference Record | Remaining Games | |
| UNM | 16-3-1 | 9 (AFA, @FSU, Nevada) |
| SDSU | 14-7 | 9 (@SJSU, @AFA, FSU) |
| FSU | 11-10 | 9 (@UNLV, UNM, @SDSU) |
| AFA | 10-13 | 6 (@UNM, SDSU) |
| SJSU | 8-14-1 | 6 (SDSU, @UNLV) |
| Nevada | 9-14 | 6 (UNLV, @UNM) |
| UNLV | 7-14 | 9 (FSU, @Nevada, SJSU) |
- The Conference Regular Season Champion will host the four-team Conference Tournament this season.
- The Lobos have clinched a spot in the tournament, and could clinch the title before the last weekend of the season. SDSU is likely going to be a top 2 seed in the tournament, but need the Lobos to struggle to have a legit shot of hosting the tournament.
- I believe that 14 wins from both FSU and AFA would clinch a bid to the Tournament, I would put the odds of FSU making the tournament at 85%, and AFA odds of making the Tournament at a much lower 60%.
- The teams to watch in the bottom three are last-place UNLV, as they have 9 remaining games which gives them more opportunities for wins. If they can manage to go 7-2 or possibly 6-3, they could find themselves in the 4 seed.
Series Prediction:
In the first series between these two teams in early March, the Lobos swept the series with 19-5, 24-16, and 16-7 wins. The Lobos have the advantage on the mound and this should be even more evident in a less hitter friendly environment at Santa Ana Field (yes, that was weird to type). The Lobos should be able to take advantage of the Falcons’ pitching again, and I expect the Lobos best hitters to have huge weekends. I give the Lobos a 30% chance of a sweep, 45% chance of a 2-1 series win, a 20% chance of winning 1 of 3, and a 5% chance of getting swept. I have the Lobos sweeping the series with relative ease. It should be a great weekend for Lobo Baseball and there should be a great turnout.
Series Info:
Who: New Mexico Lobos (26-19-1, 16-3-1) vs. Air Force Academy Falcons (21-20, 10-13)
When: Friday May 5th 6:30 PM, Saturday May 6th 2 PM, Sunday May 7th 1 PM
Where: Santa Ana Star Field, Albuquerque, New Mexico
Radio: ESPN 101.7 The TEAM
Stream: The MW Network.
Lobo Baseball Series 7 Preview: Fresno St.
The Lobos (16-9, 9-0) return home after finishing off UNLV last weekend for their third straight conference series sweep and a midweek win at NMSU on Tuesday. After dropping six straight games a couple of weeks ago the Lobos have rebounded with a five-game win streak. The pitching has been great for the Lobos for all but two games this season (AFA 24-16 win, OSU 13-0 loss), and it will need to continue to be great this week, as they face a very talented Fresno State (14-0, 5-4) squad that won the MW Regular Season Championship last season. With a series win this weekend, the Lobos could create huge separation between them and FSU just 12 games into a 30-game conference schedule. This is a huge series for both teams this weekend, but you could make the case that it is a bigger series for FSU, after dropping 2 of 3 at home last weekend against SDSU. With another series loss this weekend, FSU’s title hopes will be very slim just 12 games in. This series should be a great matchup between two of the most talented teams in the conference, and the west coast in general.
Lobo Baseball Series 6 Preview: UNLV
The Lobos (12-9, 6-0) return to conference play after going 1-6 over the week and a half of non-conference games. While the Lobos did struggle during a six-game losing streak, five of those games were against Oklahoma State (2 midweek games) and Cal State Fullerton (3 games), both of whom are nationally-ranked. The Lobos did have chances in just about every game to come out with the win, including Saturday’s game against Fullerton, where they had a 4-1 lead at one point. The interesting thing about the struggles during this seven-game stretch was that the issues stemmed from the offense and not the pitching. This is good news for the Lobos as they get back into conference play and face other nationally-ranked teams later in the season, so hopefully their bats can come around for good by then. It was great to see the offense click on Wednesday against Grand Canyon, when they scored 22 runs.
Lobo Baseball Series 4 Preview: San Jose State
The Lobos (8-3, 3-0) are riding high, as they are on a four-game winning streak and look to extend it this weekend against the visiting San Jose State Spartans (6-5, 2-1). The Lobos scored a ton of runs and got good pitching for most of the past week, aside from the first 3 innings last Saturday. The Lobos have a chance to create separation early in the conference season, which could pay huge dividends as the season goes along and allow them to host the conference tournament for the second straight year. Look for the Lobo pitching staff to have a great weekend against the struggling offense of the Spartans, while the Lobo bats will be the biggest test this Spartans’ pitching staff has faced this season. It should be a good weekend for the Lobos at Santa Ana Star Field.
Lobo Baseball Series 3 Preview: Air Force
The Lobos (4-3), start off their Mountain West schedule this weekend, as they travel to Colorado Springs to take on the Air Force Falcons (4-3). Coming into this series, the Lobos have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but don’t let that scare you off from this team. Last weekend, the Lobos played a tight series against a very talented Dallas Baptist team, where the Lobos lost the deciding game 7-6 in 11 innings. In that game, the Lobos came back from down 4-1 in the 9th to send the game to extra innings, then took a 6-4 lead in the top of the 11th before a three-run homer won the game for DBU. In their midweek game against nationally-ranked Texas Tech, the Lobos had one bad inning and lost the game 7-2. While the final score looks like a blow out, the Lobos had plenty of chances, including a bases load opportunity in the 8th down 5-2.
Lobo Baseball Series 2 Preview: Dallas Baptist
After their season-opening sweep of Binghamton last weekend, the Lobos (3-0) take the show on the road to face a very talented and familiar face this weekend when they head to Dallas to take on the Patriots of Dallas Baptist University (3-1). This is an important series for both teams, as it could be the difference in seed lines for the NCAA Tournament. A good thing for the Lobos this year is that they will have a lot of opportunities to pick up great wins, which will be useful if they need an at-large bid, but it would be great to start getting these wins in the second week of the season, rather than needing to pick them up later. It will be important for the Lobos to get great starting pitching this weekend, since it is probably the only area in the matchup where they have a decided edge right now. This should be a fun series to watch, and quite frankly, I hope we get to see this become an annual series for years to come.
Lobo Baseball Series 1 Preview: Binghamton University
The long journey of the 2017 Lobo Baseball season starts this weekend against Binghamton University, where the Lobos will face the Bearcats in a three-game series on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The Lobos look to get their season off to a great start before their schedule really heats up next weekend when they travel to Dallas Baptist. This should be a very good series to start the season, since Binghamton is a talented team that also made the NCAA Tournament last season.