The Lobos (2-3) are currently on a three-game losing streak, having lost at Texas Tech and two home games against Tulsa and Saint Joseph’s. They are looking to get back on track on the road against NMSU (4-2), who they dominated in their first meeting a couple of weeks ago, winning going away 84-55. In the first meeting, the Aggies had no answer for Rachelle van der Keijl, who finished the game with 19 points (9-12 FGs), 20 rebounds, and 3 blocked shots. It would be safe to assume the Lobo coaching staff will make it a point to get van der Keijl and Jaisa Nunn involved early and often in this rematch. The Lobos also had great games from Alex Lapeyrolierie (22 points, 5-12 3P FGs) and great playmaking by Cherise Beynon, who tied a Lobo record with 15 assists.

Trends:

Since it has been a few games since we have caught up with the Lobos, here are a few of the trends that have caught my eye.

Good Trends:

• Rachelle van der Keijl has been fantastic early this season for the Lobos, leading the team with 16.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.2 blocks a game. Look for Coach Bradbury to make a point to play through the post more as the season goes along.
• Jaisa Nunn has been great coming off the bench so far this season, teaming up with van der Keijl to form a great 1-2 scoring punch in the post. Nunn is averaging 12.4 points and 8.8 rebounds in 23 minutes a game. After not attempting a three-pointer last season Nunn is 2-7 (28.6%) from distance these first five games.
• The Lobos are shooting a lot of three-pointers, as expected. While they haven’t shot great from behind the line so far this season (28.8%), Alex Lapeyrolerie has been the one Lobo to shot well from distance, making 16-42 (38.1%). With the Lobos shooting three-pointers at such a high rate (26.4 attempts per game), if the Lobos can hit 10 threes a game, that would go a long way in being a high scoring team.
• While Cherise Beynon has struggled with her shot early this season, she has done well to make an impact setting up her teammates in good scoring chances and helping on the glass. So far this season, Beynon is averaging 8.6 points, 8.6 assists and 9 rebounds a game.
• The Lobos have had quarters where they have dominated their opponents. This shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the fast place they play at. When the Lobos are hitting shots from the outside and getting the ball inside, they are hard to stop and can build big leads in a hurry.
• The Lobos defense has done a good job limiting good looks for their opponents, holding them to 35.3% from the floor and 28.3% from the three-point line.

Bad Trends:

• Due to the lack of true point guards and great outside shooters, the Lobos can go through long droughts. During the Tulsa game, they scored 2 points during the second quarter. The Lobos will have occasional struggles scoring, but it isn’t because of style or lack of effort.
• Cherise Beynon has struggled from the floor so far this season, shooting 14-81 (17.3%) from the floor. I fully expect this number to go up, but the question will be how much, since last season Beynon shot barely over 30%. If the Lobos are able to shoot well the rest of the season, we could see Beynon being close to averaging a triple-double.
• Right now, the Lobos are averaging 14.8 turnovers a game, which isn’t horrible considering the pace they play at, but I would venture to guess that Coach Bradbury and staff would like to see that number closer to 12.
• The Lobos have struggled with turning their opponents over, with their opponents averaging only 11 a game. The Lobos need to find a way to force more turnovers to get in transition where our athletes should be able to get easy buckets.

Stat Comparison:

	Lobos	Aggies
Points Per Game	71.2	73.7
Points Allowed Per Game	65.2	61.8
Rebounds Per Game/Margin	51.6, +6.8	44.3, +1.0
Assists Per Game	16.6	16.8
Turnovers Per Game	14.8	15.3
Steals Per Game	4.2	12.2
Blocks Per Game	5.0	5.7
Field Goal %	37.6%	39.4%
3 Point%	28.8%	27.8%
Free Throw %	55.7%	67.7%
Opponent FG%	35.3%	35.3%
Opponent 3P FG%	28.3%	27.5%

As we can see from the stats, these teams are evenly matched. I would be surprised if this isn’t a close game, unlike their first meeting in The PIT.

Prediction:

This should be a good matchup between the two Division I schools in the state. Due to the first meeting, I expect the Aggies coaching staff to make more adjustments than the Lobos to start the game. If changes aren’t made, we could see a repeat of the first meeting. I think this game is going to be a lot closer and will likely be a toss-up game between the two teams. I give the Lobos a 54% chance of winning the game, with the final being 79-75. Expect Cherise Beynon to make up for her bad shooting in the first meeting with a big game against the Aggies.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (2-3) at New Mexico State Aggies (4-2)

When: Wednesday November 30, 5:30 PM MT

Where: Pan American Center, Las Cruces, New Mexico

Steam: ESPN3

 

The Lobos (1-0) got their season off to a good start with a dominating win against Fairleigh Dickinson, winning 83-56. It was a good matchup for the Lobos to shake off some of the rust and start to understand Coach Bradbury’s style of play without having to think about it too much. In that matchup against Fairleigh Dickinson, the Lobos could use their size to their advantage and received great games from Rachelle van der Keijl, Kianna Keller, and Jaisa Nunn, with each player collecting 9 rebounds and combining for 33 points. The Lobos will need to keep getting great games from their front court and use their great size as an advantage. Things will get tougher for the Lobos when they face NMSU (1-0) on Tuesday night, as NMSU is coming off a great season in which they went 24-5, including a sweep of the Lobos.

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The Coach Bradbury era tips off for real on Saturday afternoon when the Lobos take on Fairleigh Dickinson in both team’s season opener. The Lobos will be heavy favorites in this game, but that doesn’t mean they can just show up and expect to win. Last season, Fairleigh Dickinson went 11-22 and had an RPI of 314. In comparison, the Lobos went 17-15 with an RPI of 171. This will be a good opening game for the Lobos before things get a little tougher in a couple of days, when they will take on NMSU.

Stat Comparison:

	Lobos	Knights
Points Per Game	61.3	64.8
Points Allowed Per Game	57.6	71.3
Rebounds Per Game/Margin	39.2, +3.3	39.6, +.5
Assists Per Game	13.5	11.5
Turnovers Per Game	14.6	18
Steals Per Game	8.8	7.5
Blocks Per Game	2.9	3.3
Field Goal %	37.7%	39.7%
3 Point%	27.7%	30.1%
Free Throw %	.651%	71.5%

These stats are from last season and there are quite a few changes for both teams, so it will be interesting to see how different the two teams are from last year.

Fairleigh Dickinson:

This could be tough year for the Knights, as they lose 3 of their top 4 scorers, including two players that averaged over 16 points per game. The top returning player for the Knights is Brianna Thomas, who averaged 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds, if the Knights want to be good this season, Thomas must take a step forward and become a player that averages 12 points and 8 rebounds a game. The Knights will need newcomers and returning players to fill the void left by their star players from a year ago. In my opinion, Fairleigh Dickinson is one of the two most winnable games this season, so the Lobos need to make the most of this opportunity.

What to Watch:

• It will be interesting to see Coach Bradbury’s rotation early in the year. In his press conference earlier this week, Bradbury said he would like to use a 7-player rotation, which means a lot of players could get left out.
• How quickly will the Lobos be able to get comfortable playing this up-tempo style of basketball? If the Lobos can find good shots early in the shot clock and can keep turnovers to under 13 a game, the transition shouldn’t be too rough.
• How well will the two centers in the game at the same time play together? Kianna Keller and Rachelle van der Keijl will be the starting front court early this year for the Lobos, so it will be interesting to see how well that works.
• Is Cherise Beynon able to take the step forward and become the star of the team? Beynon shared the role with Shumpert as a sophomore last year and will be counted on for a lot of the Lobos’ success this season.
• The point guard position will be worth watching at all yea. How much will the lone true point guard Laneah Bryan play and who are the other players that will play the lead guard position?

Schedule Breakdown:

All records and RPI are from last season results, so while these will change from year to year, they will give us some understanding of who is good and who the Lobos should beat.

Fairleigh Dickinson	11-22	314
NMSU H/A	24-5	94
@ Texas Tech	13-18	143
Tulsa	12-19	190
BYU/St. Joseph’s	25-7, 14-15	22, 123
SMU	13-18	197
Minnesota	20-12	86
UTEP	28-5	36
Eastern Illinois	3-25	339
@ Marquette	14-16	105

 

The Lobos will play eight of their eleven non-conference games at home this season, which could allow the Lobos to get confidence going into the conference schedule.

Bold Predictions:

• Cherise Beynon will average 17 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals a game.
• Mykeil Burleson will average 8+ point and 3+ assists per game
• Kianna Keller and Rachelle van der Keijl will combine for over 5 blocks a game.
• Jaisa Nunn and van der Keijl will both average 8+ points and 8+ rebounds a game.
• Emily Lines will lead the Lobos in 3 Point % and average two 3 point makes a game.
• Lobos will finish in the top 4 of the conference.
• Lobos will win 20 games and make great strides as a team come January.
• Cherise Beynon will be named MW Player of the Year.
• van der Keijl and Nunn will make an all-conference team.
• Coach Bradbury will win coach of the year.
• Lobos will average 77+ points per game.
• Lobos will make a run in the conference tournament.

Game Prediction:

I have the Lobos winning the game against Fairleigh Dickinson easily. If the Lobos can play their style of play, you could be looking at a 20+ point win. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 85% with the Lobos winning this game 85-63.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico Lobos (0-0) vs. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (0-0)

When: Saturday, November 12, 2 PM MT

Where: WisePies Arena AKA The PIT, Albuquerque, New Mexico

Steam: LoboTV

The Lobo women’s basketball team went 2-0 during their exhibition season, winning games against two Division II schools in Fort Lewis (101-48) and Eastern New Mexico (89-70). The Lobos will officially kick off the Coach Mike Bradbury era Saturday afternoon against Fairleigh Dickinson. While there is little that we can take away from the first two exhibitions, we can look at the numbers each player had last season and try to guess what kind of growth we could see in each player. It will be difficult to see what the impact of Coach Bradbury’s system will be on each player, since his system is completely different to what Coach Sanchez ran, so each stat should be taken with a grain of salt.

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As I am sure you are well aware by now, Yvonne Sanchez was let go after five years as the head coach of the UNM women’s basketball team. She had her share of detractors when she was hired and later when she was extended, but I believe that it was simply a good hire that didn’t work out and that it was the right call to give her an extension. Clearly, the last five years haven’t gone as planned, neither for us as fans or for Coach Sanchez herself, which is what led to AD Paul Krebs deciding that a change needed to take place. While we don’t know what the future holds for the team right now, it is clear that Coach Sanchez helped mold the program to where it is today and helped create high expectations for both herself and every coach who follows her.

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The Lobos (17-13, 9-9) advanced to Wednesday’s semifinals to face the top-seeded CSU Rams (29-1, 18-0) by controlling the whole game against SJSU and winning 65-51. In the game, the Lobos were able to control the pace of the game and limit SJSU’s good looks from three. Khadijah Shumpert dominated the game, scoring 26 points (11 of 15 shooting), with 5 rebounds, a block, and 2 steals. Most importantly, Shumpert only picked up two fouls in the game, so she was able to play her normal minutes. Bryce Owens was fantastic in the point guard spot, finishing with 7 points (3 of 10 shooting), 12 rebounds, 5 assists, a steal, and only 2 turnovers. The Lobos had a very balanced scoring attack after Shumpert’s 26, with nine Lobos scoring in total leading to the 65 points.

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The Lobos (16-13, 9-9) are on a two-game winning streak as they enter the Mountain West Tournament as the 5 seed. They will take on the 4^th seeded SJSU Spartans (13-16, 11-7) at 3:30 MT on Tuesday in the quarterfinals. The two teams have already played twice this season (here’s the preview for the first game, and here’s the preview for the second), with the Lobos winning the game in Albuquerque by 14 and the Spartans winning the game in San José by one. Since the last meeting, SJSU is 3-2 in their last five games, while the Lobos are 4-2 in their last six games. The key to this game will be if the Lobos will be able to control the tempo, they have been able to do this in each of the first two meetings.

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A lot has changed since the Lobos (15-13, 7-9) played the Nevada Wolf Pack (5-23, 4-13) back on December 30, which was the conference season opener for both teams. The Lobos won the first meeting 51-47 in a game where the Lobos struggled offensively, and were without the services of Jaisa Nunn (full game) and Alexa Chavez (first half injury). The Lobos need to continue the good offensive play that they showed in their last game, which helped them get a win at SDSU. If the Lobos are able to score at a good clip during this game and the MW Tournament next week, they could surprise a lot of teams.

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The Lobos (14-13, 7-9) head to San Diego to take on San Diego State (11-16, 6-10) in a key game for MW Tournament seeding. SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque 51-46, and the teams have gone in different directions since the meeting. On their end, SDSU started a five game winning streak that ended on Saturday at BSU. The Lobos, on the other hand, haven’t been able to find consistent play and haven’t been able to go on a long winning streak. The Lobos right now are in sixth place in the Conference while SDSU is in eighth. That means that if the Lobos win both of their remaining two games, they will be either the 5 seed or 6 seed, but SDSU could still overtake them if the Lobos don’t win out. Being the 6 seed means playing another game, but against a last-place Air Force squad, so that shouldn’t be a tough game.

Although this game is on the road, it’s worth remembering that playing at SDSU for women’s basketball is completely different than it is for men’s basketball. The arena won’t be full and there’s not nearly the same level of passion. That should hopefully mean that the Lobos won’t get rattled in this one. The Lobos offense needs to have a good game, which has seemed to happen only sporadically. However, if the Lobos get into the 60s, I like their chances to win. Khadijah Shumpert and Cherise Beynon, as usual, need to have great games for the Lobos to have a chance to win. But as we saw against FSU, other players need to provide production.

SDSU Aztecs:

The Aztecs are led by third-year head coach Stacie Terry and are coming off a 12-19 overall record last season, including 8-10 in conference play. While the men’s program at SDSU has become a conference power, the women’s team hasn’t been able to do the same. While the support for the men’s team is fantastic, the support for the women’s team is where the men’s support was before Coach Fisher built the program up. Coach Terry is in a position to build a good program, but it will take time. After a slow start to the season, the Aztecs have played well as of late to give them hope to make a run in the MW Tournament.

The Aztecs are led on the court by sophomore guard McKynzie Fort, who is averaging 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assist and just over 2 steals per game. It is important for Cherise Beynon to control the impact that Fort has on this game. If Beynon is able to make the Aztecs play through someone else, the chances of the Lobos winning this game improve greatly. One weakness that Fort has had this season is turning the ball over, probably for many of the same reason that Elijah Brown ends up with a high number of turnovers for the Lobo men: she is expected to do it all for the Aztecs on offense. If the Lobos can force her into a lot of turnovers because she is trying to do too much, it could benefit the Lobos. The one problem that could arise from this is that it gives her an opportunity to have a huge game and lead the Aztecs to the win.

Team Stat Comparison:

• Points Per Game: Lobos 61.4; Aztecs 59.4
• Points Allowed Per Game: Lobos 58.2; Aztecs 63.3
• Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 38.6%
• Three Point Percentage: Lobos 28.1%; Aztecs 30.1%
• Free Throw Percentage: Lobos 64.3%; Aztecs 65.4%
• Defensive Field Goal Percentage: Lobos 37.1%; Aztecs 41.9%
• Defensive Three Point Percentage: Lobos 31.2%; Aztecs 33.1%
• Rebounds Per Game: Lobos 39.7; Aztecs 33.7
• Assists Per Game: Lobos 13.3; Aztecs 11.5
• Turnovers Per Game: Lobos 15; Aztecs 15
• Turnovers Forced Per Game: Lobos 17.8; Aztecs 16.4

The biggest key to the game could be which team limits turnovers, and which team can create them.

Matchup to Watch:

Without question, the matchup to watch in this game is the battle between guards Cherise Beynon and McKynzie Fort. The key for Beynon in this matchup is to not allowing Fort to get any easy shots. If Beynon can force Fort in taking bad shots, the Lobos should be able to win this game. On offense, Beynon needs to be efficient by taking good shots and making good decisions that lead to easy shots for her teammates.

Picks:

I went 5-0 on my picks Saturday to improve to 63-21. Here are my picks for Tuesday’s games:

UNM at SDSU

USU vs. AFA

BSU at Nevada

CSU vs. FSU

SJSU vs. Wyo

Conference Standings

• CSU 16-0
• FSU 14-2
• BSU 10-6
• SJSU 10-6
• UNLV 8-9
• UNM 7-9
• USU 7-9
• SDSU 6-10
• WYO 6-11
• Nevada 4-12
• AFA 1-15

Prediction:

This is a hard game to predict, as I think the Lobos are a better team, but they are inconsistent at times. Plus, SDSU won the first meeting in Albuquerque in a low scoring game, so they should come into the game with a lot of confidence. Both teams have struggled scoring this season, so this game could be played in the 40s. That also means that if one team is able to shoot well, it will end up being a blowout. I put the odds of the Lobos winning this game at 54% with the finals score being 55-52, Lobos.

Game Info:

Who: New Mexico (14-13, 7-9) vs. SDSU (11-16, 6-10)

Where: Viejas Arena, San Diego, California

When: Tuesday March 1st, 7:30 PM MT

Radio: 610 AM

Stream: Campus Insiders

 

The Lobos (14-12, 7-8) return to action Saturday afternoon after a heart-breaking 49-48 home loss to a nationally ranked CSU team. The Lobos now have to put that behind them, as they head to California to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (17-9, 13-2). A lot has changed since the first meeting between these two teams a couple of months ago, a game that the Bulldogs won 69-65 in double overtime. This game has proved to be the turning point for the Bulldogs’ season, as they are 12-2 since then. The Lobos have been a little up and down since the last time these teams played, but they have looked like they’re starting to pull things together over the few weeks.

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