Category: Lobo Football

Estimating the UNM (and Other MW Teams) Bowl Probabilities

We’re now a few weeks into the 2021 college football season and, despite the rough loss to Texas A&M this past weekend, I can’t help but feel a tinge of something that I haven’t felt in the past few years of Lobo football: hope. Make no mistake, this Lobo team isn’t anywhere near where Coach Gonzales plans to take the program, but based on what we’ve seen already and the schedule ahead, I started to wonder if the Lobos had a reasonable chance to be bowl eligible this year. After the past four years where that didn’t seem like a realistic thing to even be pondering, it felt weird, and good, to have that cross my mind again. So, I decided to go back to some of the previous posts I did to simulate the results of the season based on current win probabilities and see what the Lobo chances are looking like.

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UNM at CSU Postgame Thoughts

There is a lot to be said about what took place in Fort Collins in the matchup between UNM and CSU. As a quick summary, The Lobos fought hard after CSU took a 14-3 lead at the half, outscoring CSU 15-6 in the second half. Unfortunately, three of CSU’s points came as time expired, as they kicked a 26-yard field goal to win the game 20-18. Here’s what was on my mind as I was leaving the press box:

Lobos had their chances: The Lobos had a 4th and 1 at the 4-yard line in the second quarter with a chance to make it a 7-7 game. That didn’t happen though. Instead, the Lobos were unable to convert and didn’t score on the drive that went 75 yards. On the next series for CSU, they had a 4th and 1 from the 3 and were able to convert, setting up a touchdown to take a 14-0 lead. At the end of the first half, the Lobos had another solid drive, going 65 yards before stalling and having to settle for a field goal. That left the Lobos looking at a 14-3 CSU lead at the half. On the first drive of the second half for CSU, the Lobos had an interception that was taken back due to a penalty. CSU didn’t score on the drive, but that could have been a game-changing play. The Lobos had a 3rd and 5 with just over a minute left and could have sealed the 18-17 win if they had converted on the play, but a dropped pass gave CSU the ball back with a chance to win the game. In a game that ends on a field goal, there are always a number of moments that could have changed the outcome. This one was no exception.

What went right: The Lobos were able to find big plays in the passing game, with Umeh having a 52-yard reception and Lilly with a 23-yard TD reception. The Lobos should be able to find those plays more consistently in the last six games of the regular season. Aside from his fumble on the second play of the game, Tyrone Owens was able to break off a few really nice runs The Lobos will need to find a way to find Owens more space throughout the remaining schedule. Marcus Hayes again showed how special of a player he can be for the Lobos when he broke for a 53-yard punt return that set up the TD by Delane Hart-Johnson.  Hayes also provided great play in the secondary, as he had 8 tackles and a pass break up. Hart-Johnson also showed great ball skills with multiple big catches on 3rd downs and a huge TD catch that gave the Lobos the lead. Sheriron Jones has taken off with the quarterback position and has shown great growth since being thrown into the fire against Wisconsin, leaving me excited to see his continued growth during the rest of the season.

What went wrong: It didn’t take long for the first miscue to show up in the game, when Owens fumbled the ball on the second play of the game to set up a quick TD for CSU. It was a play that was circled as soon as it happened and came back to bite the Lobos. I thought it was the right call to go for it when it was 4th and 1 at the 4, as if the Lobos convert they probably score a TD and momentum would have been on their side after the bad start to the game. But, as we saw, it didn’t pan out. A huge difference in the game was 3rd and 4th down conversions. On the game, the Lobos were 3 for 11 on 3rd and 0 for 1 on 4th while CSU was 7 for 18 on 3rd and 1 for 1 on 4th down. The Lobos will need to find a way to convert these situations to win these close games.

Bowl Chances: With the loss today the Lobos fall to 3-3 and 1-1 in MW play. The Lobos will need to win 3 of the final 6 games to become bowl eligible. The remaining schedule for the Lobos is Fresno State, at Utah State, SDSU, at AFA, Boise State, and Wyoming. They will play 4 of the top 5 teams in the MW during these 6 games, so finding 3 wins is going to be difficult. This team has a chance to get there, but have to think they are well below 50% at this point. Would have been nice to have this one (and Liberty, while we’re at it.)

Up next: The Lobos will return to Albuquerque to host Fresno State (4-1, 1-0 they play Wyoming tonight) next Saturday, the Lobos will have to find ways to get their big playmakers the ball and limit the opportunities Fresno State gets. It should be a good day for Lobo sports, so make sure to get a $2 ticket to the Cherry vs. Silver Men’s Basketball event on October 19th (Friday) and get a ticket for the Football game.

Lobo Football at NMSU Scattered Thoughts

It’s rivalry week, as the Lobos head down to Las Cruces to take on the Aggies for the 109th meeting between these two programs. Historically, the series has been lopsided, with the Lobos having an all-time record of 70-33-5 against the Aggies. That in itself makes it seem less like a rivalry and more like when I would dominate Zach in basketball when we were kids (let’s see if he reads this). However, the last two years have seen the Lobos play sloppy games that resulted in close losses to the Aggies, so recently, things have felt a lot tighter.

This year, neither program feels like it’s in great shape. The Lobos have been subject to tough financial situations, some coach controversies, and just a rough season in the past year. The Aggies, on the other hand, won their first bowl game in forever right before they were set to get kicked out of their conference. Still, it’s a rivalry game and it means something regardless of how good the programs are. I’d certainly prefer to not lose to the Aggies for the third straight year.

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Lobo Football 2018 Season Preview

After a long, eventful offseason, Lobo Football starts back up this weekend with a home game against Incarnate Word. Going into the year, the team has to answer some huge questions. Can they bounce back from a down season? Can they recapture fan support? And can they make a bowl game this year? It’s going to be a very interesting season.

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A Discussion About College Football

The FBS Season wrapped up on Monday with Alabama beating Georgia, earning the Crimson Tide yet another National Championship. That is, unless you ask the folks out in Orlando, who believe the National Championship was decided the week before, when UCF finished their perfect season. That started us emailing back and forth about some of the flaws that we see in the sport, particularly in regard to how the playing field is tilted such that so-called Group of 5 schools, like UNM, have a nearly impossible path to even compete for the National Championship. Here is our discussion on the matter:

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Lobo Football at Texas A&M Preview

After another underwhelming performance, losing 24-10 to Utah State, Lobo Football has now lost four in a row and has their bowl chances hanging by a thread. Unfortunately, next on the docket is Texas A&M, where the Lobos will face a hostile crowd on the Aggies’ senior night. It’s certainly not impossible, but the Lobos will need a great performance to keep their postseason hopes alive.

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Lobo Football vs Utah State

Last week’s game was…. not great. The Lobos went to Wyoming and looked completely out of sorts, allowing 42 first-half points on the way to a 42-3 drubbing. On the bright side, they won the second half 3-0. On whatever the opposite of the bright side is, everything else. That leaves the Lobos with a 3-5 record, needing to win three of their remaining four games to assure themselves a third-straight bowl game. If that happens, one of those games almost certainly has to be this one against Utah State. With their backs against the wall, I like to think that the Lobos will be ready for the challenge.

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Lobo Football at Wyoming Preview

The Lobos bounced back last week against a good Colorado State team, but ultimately couldn’t pull off the upset. I didn’t have great expectations for the Lobos going into that game, but given the way the game went, it felt like a missed opportunity. After all, if the holding penalty had been called a safety, if they had scored quickly at the end of the game, if that last pass had been ruled a completion, or any number of small things that happened in the game, they could have walked out with a win. It’s amazing how those small things stick in your mind in a close loss…

Regardless, the season marches forward and the Lobos still have work to do. They’re in Wyoming this weekend, looking to repeat last season’s performance against the Cowboys with a solid drubbing of the boys in brown. A win will get their season back on track, while a loss will make things really difficult. Needless to say, this is an important one.

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